2026 insurance nightmare update and tips

Hey there,

Like we said last month, Obamacare will get a lot more expensive next year — and since then, we’ve learned that workers with employer insurance will get socked too.

In this week’s new podcast episode, you’ll hear the Arm and a Leg team personally confront 2026 health insurance prices. We’re a case study. And we’re here to pass along what we’ve learned.

Quick recap: There’s a double whammy cooking for Obamacare plans. Insurers plan to jack up premiums, while at the very same time, federal subsidies are slated to get a lot less generous.

Meaning: Lots of people will be on the hook for hundreds of dollars more, every month.

Including my colleague Emily Pisacreta — unless we can get her on insurance through An Arm and a Leg, which would take money we don’t have (yet).

So you’d better believe we’ve been learning everything we can. You can hear our saga on the podcast.

Meanwhile, here’s what you need to know, including political news breaking this week, and specifics about how to see what you may be in for, and where you might be able to find help.

But first: real quick — we can’t do this work without the support of our audience. If you’re reading this and finding any of it useful, would you consider chipping in to support our work?

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Congress could avert the double-whammy, if they act fast

Expiring federal subsidies play a huge role in the double whammy. If Congress extends them soon, it could make a huge difference.

Here’s the background: In 2021, Congress added new “enhanced” subsidies to Obamacare, making policies much more affordable for pretty much everyone.

Millions of middle-class folks had been locked out of subsidies entirely by income caps; the new subsidies helped anyone who would be paying more than 8.5 percent of their income for a basic plan.

Enhanced subsidies also meant millions of lower-income folks could get policies for ten bucks a month, or even zero.

But those subsidies were temporary — just four years — expiring in December.

And: The expiring subsidies are a big reason insurers plan to jack up rates.

Insurance companies figure that fewer subsidies mean a lot of healthy people will just skip insurance, so the remaining “risk pool” will be more expensive — a heavier burden on people who need to actually use health care.

But just this week, the Congressional Budget Office said insurers might roll back those increases — if Congress extends the subsidies by September 30.

The stakes are high. Also this week, an analysis from the Urban Institute predicted that if the subsidies expire, 4.8 million people would drop coverage in 2026.

So, what’s Congress gonna do?

Here’s all I know: In July, when we started looking at this double-whammy situation, experts were saying, basically, Congress won’t do s—.

Republicans had just passed President Trump’s very expensive tax cuts, so they wouldn’t consider spending new money on subsidies.

By August, news reports said Republicans were “split” on the question — because so many of their constituents would get socked.

By mid-September, some Republicans were actively working on legislation to extend the subsidies.

And this week, more news. Democrats have threatened a government shutdown unless the subsidies get extended.

(Congress has until September 30 to pass a spending package, or else the government shuts down.)

All that said, I’m not holding my breath. Republicans have reportedly “dared” Democrats to shut down the government over the issue.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has announced an alternative to newly hyper-expensive Obamacare plans:

Allowing more people to sign up for “catastrophic plans” — which could be less expensive per month but offer a lot less coverage. Julie Appleby at KFF Health News has lots of details.

Meanwhile, here are some potentially useful resources.

Get your numbers, and (maybe) find a navigator

If you or anybody you know may be looking at Obamacare for 2026, this calculator can show you how ugly the numbers could be.

In our podcast episode, you’ll hear Emily consulting an earlier version — the data behind the page got an update last week — and although the output might be scary, it’s better to know the deal.

You’ll also hear Emily get super-valuable help from an Obamacare “navigator.” These are government-funded workers who help folks choose Obamacare plans and sign up for Medicaid.

Bad and less-bad news here, depending on where you live:

Bad: Earlier this year, the Trump administration announced a 90 percent cut in federal funding for navigators.

Less-bad-for-some: About half the states fund their own navigator programs, so the federal cut won’t affect them.

Those are the states in grey on the map below, from KFF.

Also: Maybe you can help.

Emily talked with Nicholas Riggs, who runs North Carolina’s navigator program. In the face of that 90 percent cut, he’s recruiting volunteers.

If you’re in a state where navigator funding has been cut, and you’re somebody who’s really good at, like, organizing in-person gatherings with your neighborhood or place of worship? It sounds like your skills could be useful.

Finally…

Yes, we’ll do more advice columns

After last week’s experiment, where I answered a question from an Arm and a Leg listener, lots of you wrote in to say, “Keep these coming.”

Glad to! And if you want to write in for advice, here’s the place to do it.

Catch you soon —

Dan

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